The silicon metal market in April 2024

Price trend

The decline in industrial silicon prices has slowed down this month. After the price fell to a certain low, export traders released some orders, and domestic traders also stocked up. The market demand still exists, and low-gradesupply is also in short supply. The price of chemical-grade silicon has room to fall by 400-500 yuan/ton. Some organic silicon factories have low requirements for trace elements and are pricing at market prices or continuing to lower purchase prices. 421# Ordinary spot shipments are still not smooth.

Export market

In March, the total silicon metal export volume is 63,901 tons, a year-on-year increase of 15,923 tons, an increase of 24.92%, and a month-on-month increase of 26,539 tons, an increase of 71.03%. The cumulative export volume ofindustrial silicon in 2024 is 165,274 tons, an increase of 18,116 tons year-on-year, an increase of 12.31%.

Industrial silicon export volume increased in March, but the export price did not see a significant increase. Many export traders said that the price was too low and it was difficult to get orders. However, some orders were released for export demand. At present, The export market is still mainly stable.

The operation rate and output in April

About 326 industrial silicon furnaces were opened in April, a decrease of 10 units month-on-month and an increase of 20 units year-on-year.The operating rate was 47.31%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.59%. The decline in the operating rate of industrial silicon plants in April was mainly due to significant production reductions in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia. Other individual factories in Fujian, Shaanxi, Guizhou, Hunan and Chongqing also reduced production. During the flat water period in May, some factories in Sichuan plan to resume production, and some factories in Xinjiang that have completed maintenance plan to increase production. The operating rate is expected to exceed 50%in May.

In April, the silicon output was approximately 333,640 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 27,300 tons, a decrease of 7.56%, and a year-on-year increase of 38,590 tons, an increase of 13.08%. Among them, Xinjiang’s output in April was 190,100 tons, accounting for 56.98% of the total output; Inner Mongolia output was 32,000 tons, accounting for 9.59% of the total output; Yunnan’s output was 22,800 tons, accounting for 6.83% of the total output. The cumulative output from January to April this year was 1,382,400 tons, an increase of 184,650 tons year-on-year, an increase of 15.42%.

In April, the silicon production capacity was 391,470 tons. The capacity release rate was 56.35%, a month-on-month decrease of 3.27%.

Downstream market

Aluminum alloy ingots: The market price of aluminum alloy ingots has remained high this month. The procurement of factories is still based on rigid demand.The demand for industrial silicon has not seen a significant increase.

Organic silicon: The market price of organic silicon has dropped significantly this month and has fallen to the low as previous. The procurement of industrial silicon continues to lower prices. Although the production of some industrial silicon manufacturers has been reversed, the procurement of organic siliconis still based on market trends.

Polysilicon: The price of polysilicon has dropped significantly this month. Some small factories have already faced losses and are unable to sustain themselves, so there is a phenomenon of early maintenance. In April, polysilicon factories produced stably, but the downstream situation was not optimistic and procurement was not active, which made it difficult to delivery polysilicon spotgoods. The prices continued to decline, and the entire industry faced losses. In terms of procurement, the price of polysilicon powder orders issued this month is on the low side. Some grinding mills have difficulty accepting orders, and the start-up of grinding lines is also at a low level.

Prediction for next month

Cost side: At present, the cost of silicon plants has not changed much. It is expected that electricity prices will decrease in the south area in near future.The overall production cost price will remain low in the north.

Supply and demand side: Some silicon factories have reduced production thismonth, mainly in Yunnan. The output has decreased, and there is a small amount of destocking in the market. However, in May, some silicon factories inSichuan and Yunnan resumed operations. In addition, the operation of a largefactory was at a historically high level. The polysilicon market is not optimistic and maintenance is in progress. It is expected that output will increase next month and demand will decrease.

Price trend: The long-term decline in industrial silicon prices has made factories eager to increase. However, in terms of supply and demand relations andthe industrial chain, the rebound in industrial silicon prices is still limited. If the quotations of major manufacturers increase significantly, it is expected that industrial silicon will also have the opportunity to rise slightly in the short term.