The silicon market in March 2024

The raw material market of silicon metal

Taiwan coke has dropped significantly this month.It is reported that some silicon plants are currently in a state of loss, so they have cut costs and it is difficult to sell raw materials at high prices.The price of Ningxia silicon coal and Shaanxi silicon coal has dropped significantly, which is also affected by the price of industrial silicon.

Silicon metal price trend

The market price of metallurgical grade silicon has dropped significantly this month. After the futures market fell in mid-March, the decline in industrial silicon seems to have pressed the accelerator button. A large factory in the north has a certain inventory pressure, so it is actively delivery, and the price of large orders is also constantly falling. The market follows the principle of buying up and not buying down, and transactions are deserted. Most factories in production have a certain inventory backlog, and some price concessions appear in factories. 553 non-oxygen currently has no advantage over low-grade oxygen-grade of silicon. And the factory basically does not re-quote it to the outside. The supply of 521# and 441# industrial silicon is not large, and few factories offer external quotations.

The market for chemical-grade industrial silicon is still trending downward. Although low-titanium sources are still difficult to find, downstream organic silicon factories are still purchasing orders according to market conditions. It is reported that organic silicon has been purchased recently.At present, the price of ordinary 421# industrial silicon in market transactions is relatively low, and many futures dealers also indicate that the entry and exit speed of warehouse receipts is slow.

The export market

In February, the industrial silicon exports totaled 37,362 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10,170 tons, a decrease of 21.40%, and a month-on-month decrease of 26,649 tons, a decrease of 41.63%. The cumulative export volume of industrial silicon in 2024 is 101,373 tons, an increase of 2,193 tons year-on-year, an increase of 2.21%.

In March, the domestic market price of industrial silicon fell, but foreign orders improved. Exporters said that there was a small increase in orders. Coupled with the price gap between previous orders and domestic prices, the current situation seems optimistic.

The operation rate and output in March

In March, the industrial silicon production capacity was 413,880 tons, with a capacity release rate of 59.62%, a month-on-month increase of 2.04%. In March, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia and other places saw an increase in production. In the second half of the year, factories in some areas reduced production due to market and own power supply reasons.

In March, the industrial silicon output was approximately 360,940 tons, a month-on-month increase of 17,600 tons, an increase of 5.13%, and a year-on-year increase of 42,220 tons, an increase of 13.25%. Among them, Xinjiang’s output is 198,600 tons, accounting for 55.02% of the total output; Yunnan’s output is 35,580 tons, accounting for 9.86% of the total output; Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region’s output is 34,750 tons, accounting for 9.63% of the total output. The cumulative output from January to March this year was 1,048,760 tons, an increase of 146,060 tons year-on-year, an increase of 16.18%.

In March, 336 industrial silicon thermal furnaces were opened nationwide, a decrease of 12 units from the previous month and an increase of 7 units from the same period last year. The operating rate was 48.91%, a decrease of 2.04% from the previous month. Changes in operating rates are reflected in the production reductions of some factories due to the downturn in the market in the latter half of the year and the temporary suspension of production due to power station maintenance in individual factories. Entering April, some large factories plan to resume production, while some small factories are overwhelmed by cost inversion and plan to reduce or suspend production. The operating rate is expected to remain around 49% in April.

Downstream market

Aluminum alloy ingots: The price of aluminum alloy ingots has been increased this month, but the consumption of industrial silicon has not increased. Aluminum factories are all in urgent need of buying goods, and the prices are seriously suppressed.

Organic silicon: The price of organic silicon has dropped this month, and the downstream industry has returned to rationality, but a major manufacturer is still holding up prices.

Polysilicon: The overall price of polysilicon is trending downward this month. The demand is normal. The prices are slowly declining. In terms of purchasing industrial silicon powder, due to the continuous price reduction by polysilicon factories, some grinding mills are unwilling to accept orders. The low market prices are also constantly being broken. At present, mills do not dare to stock up on large quantities of goods, and they mainly buy goods for urgent needs.

 Forecast of metal silicon next month

Cost: At present, raw material prices are basically on a downward trend, and the industrial silicon market is poor, which will also affect the enthusiasm of factories to purchase raw materials. It is expected that the prices of oil coke and washed coal will also decline in the later period.

Supply and demand side: The total inventory of industrial silicon is at a high level. In addition, the market is weak, downstream purchases are not active, and factories have been in a state of accumulated inventory. In the absence of centralized production suspension, the high inventory will be difficult to consume in a short period of time. .

Price trend: There is no good support in the market at present. Many bearish people are also waiting for the northern factories to be forced to stop. If there is a concentrated bargaining situation in the downstream, it is expected that there will be opportunities for industrial silicon prices to rebound in April, but the wet season is coming. Even if The rebound space is also limited.