The silicon metal market in May 2024

Price trend

Due to the small number of factories in production non blowing oxygen silicon, some factories have raised their quotations after resuming work. It is difficult to buy low-priced goods. The market output of 551# is relatively small. Few factories have quoted the price of 441# to buyers. The sales speed of 521# factories is relatively slow. The production area of 3303# silicon is Yunnan, and the quotation of low-phosphorus boron in Fujian has not changed for the time being.

The price of chemical-grade silicon continued to decrease this month. Organic silicon factories have been in long-run loss, and their acceptance of silicon prices is not high at present. At the beginning, they mainly signed monthly orders, but now they have changed to decentralized procurement. The organic silicon manufacturers without titanium requirements have even more price pressure.

The market price of 97 silicon is stable this month. The factory quotations have been raised in the early of May. As the buyer market is on the sidelines at the end of the month, many factories said that no new orders have been placed this week. However, most silicon factories have delivered old orders, and some new production factories have a small amount of inventory backlog. It is expected that the output of 97 silicon will remain high in the near future.

Export market

In April, the total export volume of industrial silicon was 66,633 tons, an increase of 22,149 tons year-on-year, up 49.79%, and an increase of 2,732 tons month-on-month, up 4.28%. In 2024, the cumulative export volume of industrial silicon was 231,907 tons, an increase of 40,265 tons year-on-year, up 21.01%.

The export prices are basically stable in this month. The recent increase in shipping costs has been sharp. There are certain inquiries from abroad, but the price-cutting phenomenon is difficult to change. As the price of industrial silicon stabilizes, some export traders dare not rashly bet on a fall in the future market, so low-priced orders are difficult to accept.

The operation rate and output in May

In May, 379 industrial silicon ore furnaces were started operation, an increase of 53 units from April and 98 units from May of last year. The operation rate was 54.85%, an increase of 7.53% from the previous month. The increase in the operation rate of industrial silicon factories in May was mainly due to the increases in Sichuan and Xinjiang, especially after the Sichuan region entered the flat water period, factories resumed production one after another.

The total output of industrial silicon in May was about 406,000 tons, an increase of 72,360 tons from the previous month, an increase of 21.69%, and an increase of 136,190 tons from the previous year, an increase of 50.48%. Among them, Xinjiang’s output in May was 239,300 tons, accounting for 58.94% of the total output. Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region’s output was 34,800 tons, accounting for 8.57% of the total output. Sichuan’s output was 34,100 tons, accounting for 8.40% of the total output. The cumulative output from January to May this year was 1,788,400 tons, an increase of 320,840 tons from the previous year, an increase of 21.86%.

In May, the total industrial silicon production capacity was 712,690 tons, with 440,540 tons of capacity put into production and a capacity release rate of 61.81%, up 5.46% from the previous month.

Downstream market

Aluminum alloy ingots: The price of aluminum alloy ingots fluctuated slightly at a high level this month, and the aluminum price remained high, but the purchase of industrial silicon was still mainly based on rigid demand, and the bidding between major traders was relatively serious.

Organic silicon: The organic silicon market was relatively quiet, and no centralized procurement was seen.

Polysilicon: The price of polysilicon market continued to decline this month, and polysilicon manufacturers suffered serious losses across the board, with more maintenance and a slowdown in the decline. At present, except for rigid demand purchases, the transaction volume of downstream silicon wafer manufacturers has not improved, and small polysilicon factories are still shipping at low prices. This month, the price of industrial silicon powder purchased by polysilicon factories was basically the same as last month, but small mills were closed and waited and see, and large mills took orders to maintain customers.

Prediction for next month

Cost side: At present, there is no obvious fluctuation in the price of raw materials, which has little impact on silicon plants for the time being. In Sichuan, the water season this month, factories are actively operating, electricity prices are reduced, and costs are reduced. Yunnan will resume production next month; electricity prices in the northern region are stable, and the so-called electricity reform policy has not yet had a large-scale impact on electricity prices in the north.

Supply and demand side: The increase in industrial silicon production this month is relatively obvious, and in the flood season in the south, Sichuan and Yunnan are more enthusiastic about resuming work. It is expected that the monthly output of industrial silicon will reach a historical high next month, and it will increase in the later period without sudden factors. The trend of polysilicon production reduction next month has been clear. The demand for industrial silicon in the silicone and aluminum markets plus exports is basically stable, so the supply side will increase and the demand side will decrease.

Price trend: After the futures market price increase, the quotations of the factories in production are chaotic. Most factories have hedged with futures and spot traders, and the market accumulation will be transferred to the delivery warehouse. If futures continue to rise, the spot market price may rise in the short term. If the market returns to fundamentals, it is expected that the trend next month will still be mainly weak and stable.