The silicon market in September 2021

The monthly increase of silicon metal is 35000-37000 yuan, constantly refreshing practitioners’ awareness of the possibility of the price, which has set a record!

Metallurgical grade silicon market

Metallurgical silicon metal continued to rise sharply in September, with the largest increase exceeding 160%. The daily increase in the first half of the month was 200-1000 yuan. As soon as Yunnan’s energy consumption control policy was carried out, the market’s expectations for silicon metal shortages increased. Continued bullishness and active purchases stimulated silicon prices to skyrocket, even reaching a daily increase of 10,000 yuan. However, the situation of electricity curtailment, load limit and difficulty in purchasing raw materials in various places continues to ferment, and the price of silicon remains high. By the end of the month, due to serious losses in the downstream aluminum market, small and medium-sized factories stopped production and sold inventory of silicon metal. The market was a little calm, and some holders also sold the goods lower 2000-5000yuan per ton.

Chemical grade silicon market

In September, the chemical-grade silicon metal market frequently adjusted prices, and the monthly order control market was not obvious. However, the price of some holders continued to increase, and the execution of orders continued to be delayed. Some silicon plants were indeed affected by objective factors and were unable to deliver normally, and worried a lot when signing orders. In the process of cost transmission in the downstream silicone market, prices continue to increase. However, when the downstream markets such as silicone rubber and white carbon black are unbearable, some of the demand will be reduced. This also makes silicon factories look at the development of the entire industrial chain and increase prices.

The Exporting Market of Silicon Metal

In August, the total exports of metal silicon products amounted to 67,714 tons, an increase of 4,825 tons compared with last month and an increase of 21,280 tons, an increase of 45.83% compared with last year. From January to August, exports totaled 533,415 tons, an increase of 155,960 tons, an increase of 41.32% compared with the same period last year. Due to the soaring domestic silicon price, the overseas market is also chaotic. On the one hand, foreign buyers cannot bear the high prices. On the other hand, the output of other countries is limited. In order to meet their downstream demand, they have to bear unprecedented high prices. At present, domestic silicon metal has reversed from oversupply in the past to in short supply, and foreign buyers are more concerned about policies such as increasing export tariffs in the future.

The Operation and Capacity

In September, the total silicon metal plants opened 341 units, 6 units more than last month, and 53 units more than the same period of last year; the operating rate was 57.80%, a month-on-month increase of 1.47%; the production capacity was 332,760 tons, and the capacity release rate was 61.90%; the total monthly output was 252,410 tons, which was a month-on-month increase. Production was reduced by 4460 tons, down 1.73%, and output increased by 537,310 tons year-on-year, up 17.34%. The total national output from January to September was 1975,590 tons, an increase of 452,670 tons from January to September 2020, an increase of 29.72%.

At present, in order to complete the central energy consumption double control indicators in all regions of the country, the areas where the increase in the first half of the year has not decreased, and the increase is strictly enforced. It is expected that the national silicon metal industry will be affected by this in October and limit power and load production, and output will drop slightly.

The Market Prediction for October

At present, the new downstream projects planned to start production have not been carried out as scheduled, the increase of demand side is expected to be delayed, and it is not clear when the production will be put into operation in the later period; the silicon plant may be affected by the control policy of energy consumption and there may be production reductions, but the high price induces the factory to start operation with high enthusiasm .The output is expected to be no less than 230,000 tons/month. If the downstream organic silicon and polysilicon downstream continue to receive less orders, the ability to withstand high prices may reaches a peak. The downstream cost transmission fails and the silicon price is backed down. In October, it is predicted that the overall price will be still running at a high level.